Tropical Climate Update

Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan crossed the Gulf of Carpentaria coast

Tropical low 09U intensified and was named Tropical Cyclone (TC) Megan over the Gulf of Carpentaria during Saturday 16 March, after moving eastward across the northern Top End in the previous few days. TC Megan quickly strengthened to a severe tropical cyclone (category 3 intensity) on 17 March while tracking south towards the Northern Territory's coast. Severe TC Megan made landfall on the Carpentaria coast, south-east of Port McArthur in the afternoon of Monday the 18th as a category 3 system. It weakened while tracking south further inland through the Carpentaria district and was downgraded to a tropical low (ex-TC Megan) on the morning of Tuesday 19 March.  

Severe TC Megan brought damaging winds around the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and heavy rainfall with isolated daily falls up to 200 mm to 300 mm in the inland Carpentaria district after the landfall. Centre Island in the Northern Territory recorded a west to south-westly wind gust of 170 km/h (93 knots) in the afternoon of 18 March, the second-highest wind gust for March on record for this station, and the highest for 39 years since severe tropical cyclone Sandy brought 220 km/h wind gust at Centre Island on 22 March 1985.  Groote Eylandt Airport recorded a daily rainfall total of 431.0 mm on the 17th, the fourth-highest daily rainfall for March on record in the Northern Territory. The 2-day (16 and 17 March) rainfall total of 680.4 mm has already exceeded this station's previous highest monthly rainfall for any month on record.  

Severe TC Megan is the fifth Tropical Cyclone of the 2023-24 season, and the fourth to cross the Australian mainland. Severe TC Megan is also the second cyclone to have formed in the Gulf of the Carpentaria and made landfall in the Northern Territory's Carpentaria coast in this season.  

In the north-west Australian region, tropical low 08U is continuing its westward movement across the Indian Ocean. There is an increasing chance to develop into a Tropical Cyclone south of Christmas Island later in the week. The system is unlikely to bring significant impacts on Christmas Island community or to the Australian mainland.  

For the latest tropical low and tropical cyclone updates in the Australian region, refer to the Tropical cyclone forecast

Monsoonal showers and winds to withdraw from the northern Australia coast

An active monsoon trough established across the northern Australia coast in the past week. Enhanced storms and showers were observed with weekly rainfall totals of at least 100 mm in the Kimberley coast in Western Australia, the northern Top End of the Northern Territory and the tip of the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland. Daily rainfall of 100 mm to 150 mm was reported near the Top End coast during the passage of tropical low 09U before it developed into severe TC Megan. Flood warnings and watches have been issued for multiple river catchments in the Northern Territory and tropical Queensland.  

Madden-Julian Oscillation moves across the Maritime Continent to Western Pacific

A strong Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Western Pacific. The majority of climate models indicate that the MJO will move east to the western hemisphere in the coming days, then likely weaken significantly in the equatorial Africa in late March.  

The current active monsoon burst and associated tropical systems in the east Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent are unrelated to MJO activity. Enhanced cloudiness due to the current MJO phase is only evident over north-eastern Australia.