Tropical Climate Update

Hot conditions across northern Australia

Persistent, intense heat continued across most of northern Australia over the past week. Daily maximum temperatures were in the high 30s and low 40s and minimum temperatures in the mid to high 20s. Some early season maximum temperature records were set in parts of Queensland including 44.0 °C at Julia Creek Airport on the 8th and 43.2 °C at Mount Isa Aero on the 9th. A number of sites in Queensland also set November or early season minimum temperature records.

From 5 November, a low to severe intensity heatwave developed across large parts of central and north-west Queensland, the Kimberley and North Interior in Western Australia and northern half of the Northern Territory including the Tiwi Islands. Heatwave Warnings were issued on each day across affected areas.

The long-range forecast for the fortnight of 16 November to 29 November, issued on 11 November, indicates unusually warm days (in the warmest 20% of November days observed between 1981 and 2018) are likely, up to 3 times the normal chance, for northern parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland. Unusually warm nights (in the warmest 20% of November nights observed between 1981 and 2018) are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of northern Australia.

Typhoons Yinxing (Marce) and Toraji (Nika)

A tropical storm named Yinxing (Marce in Philippines) developed on 3 November over the southern Philippine Sea and started moving slowly west-northwest towards Philippines, while strengthening. On 4 November it was upgraded to a severe tropical storm and on the 5th into a typhoon. Yinxing continued to move north-westward and on 7 November reached its peak intensity as a very strong typhoon (super typhoon) with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h, gusts of up to 240 km/h and a central pressure of 940 hPa.

Typhoon Yinxing made landfall later on the 7th on the coastal town of Santa Ana on the north-east tip of the Luzon Island in Philippines. It passed along Luzon's north coast as a typhoon and, after crossing Babuyan Channel, made a second landfall on Sanchez Mira. Typhoon Yinxing brought more than 240.0 mm of rain to northern Luzon over the 24-hour period that resulted in floodings. It also brought strong winds and storm surges to the region and lead to more than 25,000 people being displaced.

Typhoon Yinxing moved into the northern South China Sea on the 8th continuing westwards while weakening. It passed China's Hainan Island on the 10th and was downgraded into a tropical storm on the 11th.

A tropical storm named Toraji (Nika in Philippines) developed on 8 November north of Yap in the southern Philippine Sea and started moving west-northwest towards Philippines, rapidly intensifying. On the 9th it was upgraded into a severe tropical storm and on the 10th into a typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h and gusts up to 185 km/h. Typhoon Toraji made landfall early on the 11th on Dilasag on the north-eastern coast of Luzon Island. It tracked north-westwards across Luzon Island, exited into the South China Sea in a west-to-north-west direction and was downgraded into a tropical storm on the12th.

Madden-Jullian Oscillation moves to Indian Ocean

During the past week, the moderately strong Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO) moved eastwards across the Western Hemisphere and into the western Indian Ocean.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that, during the next week, the MJO pulse will move into the central Indian Ocean and likely weaken. As an active MJO moves through the Indian Ocean, it increases the likelihood of enhanced convection and rainfall in that region.