Tropical Climate Update

Heavy rainfall across northern Queensland

Tropical low 13U brought several days of widespread heavy rainfall to Queensland's northeast tropical coast. Between Ayr and Cairns, many sites recorded weekly rainfall in excess of 700 mm, with the highest weekly rainfall total (to 3 February) at a Bureau gauge recorded at Cardwell Range with 1697.0 mm which also recorded the highest daily rainfall total for this week, with 626.0 mm in the 24 hours to 9 am on 3 February.

Several days of heavy rainfall has led to flash and riverine flooding. As at 4 February Major Flood Warnings were in place for several catchments in the region, including the Haughton, Herbert, and Upper Burdekin rivers. There were also further Minor to Moderate Flood Warnings. The flooding has had major impacts on roads, including the collapse of the Ollera Creek Bridge between Townsville and Ingham, limiting supply routes to Ingham. The Burdekin Falls Dam is at 173% capacity as at 4 February.

Many sites across northern Queensland have recorded their highest daily or multi-day rainfall totals on record. Rainfall in the region is comparable in magnitude to that observed during the 2019 event. Rainfall is forecast to ease over the coming days.

For the fortnight beginning 8 February, rainfall is likely to be above average across most of the northern half of the Northern Territory and Queensland. Most of Cape York Peninsula is very likely (greater than 80% chance) to receive above average rainfall during the fortnight. Increased cloud cover means that maximum temperatures are likely to very likely to be below average across most of the Cape York Peninsula and western Queensland. Nights are likely to very likely to be warmer than average across northern Australia.

Tropical cyclone activity in Australian region

There was increased tropical activity in the Australian region during the week ending 4 February. A total of 4 systems reached at least tropical low strength (13U, 14U, 15U, 16U). The last time there was near-simultaneous development of 4 systems in the Australian region was at the end of January 2014. Tropical Cyclone (TC) Taliah (14U) and Tropical Cyclone Vince (15U), are both currently at Category 3 (Severe) strength. Severe TC Taliah is expected to move westwards, away from the Australian region. Severe TC Vince is located south-west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands (as at 4 February) and is forecast to move west-south-west. Severe TC Vince and Severe TC Taliah are not expected to impact the Australian mainland or island communities.

Tropical low 16U is currently, as at 4 February, south of the Solomon Islands. It is forecast to track south then south-east, away from the Australian region, and is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.

For the latest details on tropical low and tropical cyclone development, check the Tropical cyclone 7 day cyclone forecast and the Fiji Meteorological Service Tropical Cyclone outlook.

Monsoon trough over Queensland, but not yet near Darwin

The lack of monsoon activity, combined with high sea surface temperatures and onshore winds, have led to high temperatures and dewpoints in the Darwin region. Darwin Airport recorded its highest February minimum temperature on record on 3 February, 30.0 °C. This was also the equal second-highest minimum temperature for any month in its 85-year record.

Despite increased tropical activity in the past week, the criteria for the onset of the monsoon in Darwin are yet to be met, as at 4 February. Monsoon troughs are evident north-west of the Australian coast from Severe TC Vince to east of Severe TC Taliah, and over the Gulf of Carpentaria and Far North Queensland.

Monsoonal conditions are forecast along the north coast of the Northern Territory's Top End later this week, with a corresponding increase in rainfall and cloudiness, and a general decrease in temperatures, especially in coastal areas. A monsoon trough may form south of Darwin over 8 to 9 February. When the monsoon onset criteria are met at Darwin Airport, it will be the latest recognised onset date on record. The previous latest monsoon onset recorded at Darwin since records began in 1957–58 was during the 1972–73 wet season, on 25 January 1973.

Madden–Julian Oscillation approaching the Western Pacific

A moderate to strong pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has progressed across the Maritime Continent during the week ending 3 February and is now approaching the Western Pacific. The pulse weakened slightly in the last week. As the MJO progresses across the western Pacific, there is a spread of likely strength from surveyed models. Some models, including the Bureau's, forecast the MJO pulse to become indiscernible during February as it enters the Western Pacific while others forecast weak to moderate strength of the MJO in the Western Pacific.