Tropical Climate Update

Tropical cyclones Alfred and Bianca in the Australian region

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Alfred (22U) formed as a tropical low in the Coral Sea on 20 February and reached Category 1 strength on 22 February. The system is forecast to strengthen as it tracks in a generally south to south-easterly direction, with potential to reach Category 3 (severe) TC strength in the coming days. There is a risk that TC Alfred may move closer to the Queensland coast in early March.

Severe TC Bianca (21U) formed as a tropical low on 18 February in the Indian Ocean, and is currently (as at 12pm AEDT on 25 February) at Category 4 strength, located in the Indian Ocean. TC Bianca is not expected to directly impact the Australian mainland or island communities. Conditions are unfavourable for further strengthening and the system is forecast to weaken to a tropical low during 26 February.

For the latest tropical cyclone forecast information, including warnings and bulletins, go to our tropical cyclone web page.

Rainfall and tropical activity persists

Rainfall and tropical activity, including thunderstorms, persisted across northern Australia during the past week. Weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 150 mm were recorded across parts of northern Queensland, the Northern Territory's Top End and Western Australia's Kimberley District, which were impacted by isolated thunderstorms.

There is a risk of flooding across inland Queensland and Gulf Country as floodwaters from northern Queensland move downstream.

For the fortnight starting on 1 March, rainfall is likely to very likely to be below average across the eastern Northern Territory, as well as the western Top End, and most of Queensland. However, the development of TC Alfred may shift the forecast rainfall totals should the system progress toward the Queensland coast. Unusually low rainfall (rainfall in the bottom 20% of fortnights for this time of year) is at least twice as likely for parts of eastern Queensland and its Gulf Country during this forecast period.

Maximum temperatures for the fortnight starting on 1 March are very likely to be above average across most of northern Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average for north-western Australia, most of the Northern Territory and most of western and southern Queensland but likely to be below average for much of eastern Queensland.

Madden–Julian Oscillation expected to remain weak

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently relatively weak, located near tropical African longitudes. Surveyed model forecasts indicate a range of outcomes, with some indicating marginal strengthening and tracking towards the western Indian Ocean around the end of February. Other forecast models maintain a weak to indiscernible signal for the coming fortnight. By the 2nd week of March, most models predict the MJO will become indiscernible. When the MJO is weak, it typically has little impact on Australian rainfall.