Tropical Climate Update

Severe Tropical Cyclone (TC) Alfred impacts south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales

Severe Tropical Cyclone (TC) Alfred (22U) formed in the Coral Sea off the Queensland coast on 20 February. Tropical Low 22U reached TC status on 23 February and its intensity peaked at Category 4 (a Severe Tropical Cyclone) on 27 February as it tracked southwards. On 4 March, TC Alfred turned westward, and over the days that followed, tracked slowly as a Category 2 system towards Queensland's south-eastern coast. TC Alfred stalled in its movement just off the coast from Bribie Island early on the 8th then weakened to a tropical low and crossed the Australian mainland coast, north of Brisbane, at 9 pm local time.

Very heavy rain and flooding has impacted south-eastern Queensland and the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales as TC Alfred approached the coast (from 6 March). Seven-day totals to 9 am on 10 March of more than 200 mm were recorded across much of south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, with some regions south of Brisbane recording totals of over 400 mm. Three sites in the Gold Coast Hinterland exceeded 7-day totals of 1,000 mm to 9 am on 10 March. Some sites across New South Wales’ Northern Rivers and bordering south-eastern Queensland recorded 4 consecutive days of rainfall above 100 mm.

Daily annual and March rainfall records were set at a number of sites across south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, including Brisbane, which recorded 275.2 mm to 9 am on 10 March, both an annual record for the site (26 years of data) and its highest daily rainfall total since January 1974. K'gari Eurong (43 years of data) recorded 427.3 mm to 9 am on 9 March, breaking the previous annual record of 301.0 mm on 22 February 1976. Hervey Bay Airport, with 27 years of data, set a March and annual record of 261.4 mm to 9 am on 9 March, close to triple its previous March record of 94.8 mm.

Sustained, strong winds impacted coastal areas as TC Alfred moved towards Queensland's south-eastern coast. Many locations recorded wind gusts of more than 100 km/h, with sustained winds causing damage across parts of south-eastern Queensland and north-east New South Wales. Byron Bay (Cape Byron AWS), which has 22 years of data, had its highest March wind gust on record with 120 km/h on 7 March.

Many rivers across south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales peaked at major flood levels during the passage of TC Alfred. As of 11 March, most river levels are dropping. Flooding is forecast to gradually ease in these river basins as rainfall associated with ex-TC Alfred eases. For more information, visit the Bureau's National Warnings Summary.

As of 11 March, there have been 8 tropical cyclones in the Australian region during the 2024–25 season. Recent post-event analysis has shown that 09U sustained Category 1 intensity for long enough on 10 January 2025 to be re-classified as a tropical cyclone. 6 of the 8 tropical cyclones have reached Severe intensity (Category 3 or higher).

Heatwave conditions likely to ease, above average rainfall likely for the coming fortnight

Areas of northern Australia not affected by TC Alfred have experienced low-intensity to severe heatwaves over much of the week ending 9 March, with maximum temperatures more than 4 °C above average for much of northern Australia, excluding Cape York Peninsula, far northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Maximum temperatures were up to 8 °C above average for most of the southern half of the Northern Territory, parts of Western Australia, and western Queensland.

Rainfall totals for the week of 3–9 March were low for this time of year across most of northern Australia; parts of the western and northern Cape York Peninsula and the Pilbara recorded rainfall totals of between 25 to 50 mm. Rainfall totals up to 15 mm were recorded across most of northern Australia.

For the fortnight beginning 15 March, maximum temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average across most of Queensland and likely to be below average across Western Australia's north. Minimum temperatures across northern Australia are very likely to be above average. Heatwave conditions are forecast to contract toward Western Australia's east, southern parts of the Northern Territory and western Queensland in the coming days.

Rainfall is very likely to be above average across much of the northern tropics over the coming fortnight, due to a re-activation of the near-equatorial trough and the passage of an equatorial Rossby wave. The highest chance of exceeding median rainfall is forecast across northern Western Australia and most of the Northern Territory.  

Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast to weaken

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is of moderate strength and currently located in the western Indian Ocean. Forecasts from surveyed international models suggest it will weaken as it progresses eastwards across the Indian Ocean. When the MJO is over the western Indian Ocean, it is typically associated with the suppression of cloudiness and rainfall over northern Australia; once over the eastern Indian Ocean, the MJO has little influence on Australian rainfall.

During late March, there is an increased chance of the MJO strengthening and moving over the Australian region which may contribute to the increased chance of rainfall across northern Australia later in March.