National temperature outlook

Issued 24 February 2014

Cooler temperatures more likely across the tropics, warmer across parts of the southeast

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Cooler days and cooler nights are more likely over the northern half of the NT and the Kimberley region of WA
  • Warmer days are more likely across southern Victoria and Tasmania
  • Warmer nights are more likely across most of southeast Australia and the western coast of WA
  • Climate influences are close to their long-term average, including a neutral tropical Pacific
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over northern and eastern parts of Australia; parts of central SA and inland WA have low accuracy.
  • Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate over northwest WA and the Top End of the NT, while accuracy is generally low to very low over most of the southern half of the continent; see accuracy tab for more detail.
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, large image Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, large image

Details

The autumn maximum temperature outlook shows chances of less than 40% for warmer than normal days over the northern half of the NT and the Kimberly region of WA (see map). So for every ten autumn outlooks with similar odds to these, about six of them would be expected to be cooler than average over these areas, while about four years would be warmer. The chances of warmer than normal daytime temperatures for autumn are greater than 60% over southern Victoria and Tasmania, elsewhere across the country, the chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal daytime temperatures for autumn are roughly equal.

Minimum temperatures are likely to be above the long-term median over much of southern and eastern Australia. The chances of nights being warm during autumn are at least 60% over NSW, Victoria, southern Queensland, eastern SA and parts of southwest WA, and over 80% in Tasmania and southern Victoria. Conversely, northern Australia is more likely to have cool overnight temperatures, with the chance of a warmer than normal autumn less than 40% over the northern half of the NT, the Kimberly region of WA and the over Queensland's Cape York.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that while ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through autumn, some warming of the central Pacific Ocean is likely. While short of El Niño levels, this warming may still have some impacts upon Australian climate

Ocean temperatures surrounding Australia are generally expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average, though some cooler than average temperatures around northern and north-eastern coasts early in the season may mean a reduction in evaporation in those areas. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas in the first half of the season, which may favour drier westerly winds over some parts of eastern Australia.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the autumn period is:

  • Moderate over most of Queensland, the Top End of the NT, northeast NSW, parts of the Kimberley and the northern parts of Tasmanina
  • Low over pastoral regions of SA, southeast coastal regions of Victoria and inland western and inland eastern parts of WA Australia

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the autumn period is:

  • Moderate over northern WA, the Top End of the NT, most of Tasmania and inland parts of southeast Queensland
  • Low through most of SA and region on the southern part of the NT-Queensland border and central-coastal parts of Queensland.
  • Very low over southwest WA, south east SA and the northeast coast of NSW