National temperature outlook

Issued 26 March 2014

Warmer season more likely over northern and eastern Australia

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Warmer days are more likely over most of the northern tropics, the eastern States, southeast SA, and the south coast of WA, with greatest odds for southern Victoria and Tasmania
  • The chances of warmer or cooler days are roughly equal over the north of Cape York Peninsula, most of southern and central WA, the southwest of the NT, and western and central SA
  • Warmer nights are more likely over most of Australia, except the northeast of the NT, parts of the Pilbara in WA, and the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland. The highest odds are over southeast Australia
  • Climate influences include a warming tropical Pacific, and a warm to near-normal Indian Ocean
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is high over the northern half of Australia, and moderate elsewhere, except for southeast WA where the accuracy is low
  • Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over most of Australia, except for southeast WA, the far southeast of SA, and the far northeast of NSW where accuracy is low to very low.
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, large image Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, large image

Details

The April to June maximum temperature outlook shows chances of greater than 60% for warmer than normal days over most of the tropical north, the eastern States, southeast SA, and south coastal WA. Chances exceed 80% over southern Victoria and Tasmania. So for every ten April to June outlooks with similar odds to these, about six to eight of them would be warmer than average over these areas, while about two to four would be cooler.

Over the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, southern and central WA, the southwest of the NT, and most of SA the chances of warmer or cooler daytime temperatures are roughly equal.

The chances that the average minimum temperature for April to June will exceed the long-term median are greater than 60% over most of the country. Chances exceed 80% over southeastern Australia.

The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal night-time temperatures for April to June is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) over the parts of the Pilbara in WA, the northeast of the NT, and Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) currently remains neutral, but the tropical Pacific is currently warming. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the southern winter.

Sea surface temperatures surrounding Australia, and to the west, are expected to be near normal to warmer than normal.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence is minimal during the first part of the outlook period, with a neutral IOD likely for the second part.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the April to June period is:

  • High over the northern half of Australia
  • Moderate elsewhere, except for
  • southeast WA where accuracy is low

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the April to June period is:

  • Moderate to high over most of Australia, except for
  • southeast WA, the far southeast of SA, and the far northeast of NSW where accuracy is low to very low