2012–2013 South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlook

Odds favour a near average tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific


Chance of above average tropical cyclone (TC) activity

Region Summary Chance of
above average
Long-term average
number of TCs*
Forecast
skill
Whole South Pacific region Near average 53% 15 Low
Western region Average to below average 35% 8 High
Eastern region Near average 55% 11 Low

*averages may change when the dataset is updated.

The current, neutral state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) would historically suggest the South Pacific region as a whole would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season. However, warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific in July, August and September suggests slightly reduced odds of above average (slightly increased odds of below average) tropical cyclone activity in the western region of the South Pacific this season. Historically, the model has shown high skill in the west. This outlook is for the southern hemisphere tropical cyclone season which is usually considered to be between 1 November and 30 April.
Related information: Tropical cyclone average conditions.

Past South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlooks