Western
region
Average of
8 TCs
Chance of more: 35%
2012–2013 South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlook
Odds favour a near average tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific
- Near average tropical cyclone activity is the most likely scenario for the full South Pacific region.
- There is a tendency for average to below average cyclone activity in the western region of the South Pacific.
- Climate indicators which affect tropical cyclone activity show that:
- the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña);
- near-El Niño conditions have been present in 2012 and have been considered in this outlook.
The typical Australian tropical cyclone season:
- runs between 1 November and 30 April;
- averages around 15 tropical cyclones;
- always has some risk of tropical cyclones impacting upon Pacific Islands Countries.
Eastern
region
Average of
11 TCs
Chance of
more:
55%
Chance of above average tropical cyclone (TC) activity this season
Large map
Chance of above average tropical cyclone (TC) activity
| Region | Summary | Chance of above average |
Long-term average number of TCs* |
Forecast skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole South Pacific region | Near average | 53% | 15 | Low |
| Western region | Average to below average | 35% | 8 | High |
| Eastern region | Near average | 55% | 11 | Low |
*averages may change when the dataset is updated.
The current, neutral state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) would historically suggest the South Pacific region as a whole would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season. However, warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific in July, August and September suggests slightly reduced odds of above average (slightly increased odds of below average) tropical cyclone activity in the western region of the South Pacific this season. Historically, the model has shown high skill in the west. This outlook is for the southern hemisphere tropical cyclone season which is usually considered to be between 1 November and 30 April.
Related information: Tropical cyclone average conditions.
Past South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlooks
- 2014–15 Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific.
- 2013–14 Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific.
- 2012–13 Odds favor a near average tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific.
- 2011–12 Tropical cyclone activity in the South pacific region appears likely to be shifted westward.
- 2010–11 Tropical cyclone activity for the South Pacific is expected to be higher than average in the western region and lower than average in the eastern region.
