Western
region
Average of
8 TCs
Chance of more: 56%
2013–2014 South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlook
Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific
- Near average tropical cyclone activity is most likely for the South Pacific region this season.
- The tropical Pacific Ocean, which affects tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific, is currently neutral (neither El Niño or La Niña), meaning there is no strong shift expected in the average location of tropical cyclones.
The typical South Pacific tropical cyclone season:
- has most cyclones between 1 November and 30 April;
- averages around 15 tropical cyclones;
- sees tropical cyclones impact Pacific island countires in most years; coastal impacts can be felt when tropical cyclones remain well offshore.
Eastern
region
Average of
11 TCs
Chance of
more:
47%
Chance of above average tropical cyclone (TC) activity
Large map
Chance of above average tropical cyclone (TC) activity
| Region | Summary | Chance of above average |
Long-term average number of TCs* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole South Pacific region | Near average | 48% | 15 |
| Western region | Near average | 56% | 8 |
| Eastern region | Near average | 47% | 11 |
*averages may change when the dataset is updated.
This outlook is based upon the status of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the preceding July to September period. In 2013, neutral conditions were present during these months. In the absence of El Niño or La Niña (i.e., Neutral years), tropical cyclone numbers in the South Pacific region tend to be near average, though individual years can be above or below the long term mean.
The model has a high level of accuracy predicting cyclones in the western region , but less accuracy predicting cyclones in the eastern region. Regardless of the region or the skill of the statistical model, there is currently nothing in the broad climate drivers to suggest anything but a typical tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific region. This outlook is for the southern hemisphere tropical cyclone season which runs between 1 November and 30 April.
Related information: Tropical cyclone average conditions.
Past South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlooks
- 2014–15 Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific.
- 2013–14 Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific.
- 2012–13 Odds favor a near average tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific.
- 2011–12 Tropical cyclone activity in the South pacific region appears likely to be shifted westward.
- 2010–11 Tropical cyclone activity for the South Pacific is expected to be higher than average in the western region and lower than average in the eastern region.
