2013–2014 South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlook

Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific

Chance of above average tropical cyclone (TC) activity

Region Summary Chance of
above average
Long-term average
number of TCs*
Whole South Pacific region Near average 48% 15
Western region Near average 56% 8
Eastern region Near average 47% 11

*averages may change when the dataset is updated.

This outlook is based upon the status of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the preceding July to September period. In 2013, neutral conditions were present during these months. In the absence of El Niño or La Niña (i.e., Neutral years), tropical cyclone numbers in the South Pacific region tend to be near average, though individual years can be above or below the long term mean.

The model has a high level of accuracy predicting cyclones in the western region , but less accuracy predicting cyclones in the eastern region. Regardless of the region or the skill of the statistical model, there is currently nothing in the broad climate drivers to suggest anything but a typical tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific region. This outlook is for the southern hemisphere tropical cyclone season which runs between 1 November and 30 April.
Related information: Tropical cyclone average conditions.

Past South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlooks


Service notice

Network problems on 8 January disrupted processing of observations, affecting some climate information. Missing data are being retrieved and will be processed into our systems over coming weeks.