Western
region
Average of
7 TCs
Chance of more: 39%
2014–15 South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific
- Near average tropical cyclone numbers are most likely for the South Pacific region this season.
- However, there is a shift in the odds towards lower than average tropical cyclone numbers in the western region.
- Climate factors which influence the tropical cyclone outlook include:
- The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently in an El Niño-like state.
- Climate models suggest a late season El Niño remains possible for 2014.
The South Pacific tropical cyclone season:
- has most cyclones between 1 November and 30 April.
- averages around 14 tropical cyclones.
- sees tropical cyclones impact Pacific island countries in most years. Coastal impacts can be felt when tropical cyclones remain well offshore.
Eastern
region
Average of
10 TCs
Chance of
more:
55%
Chance of above average tropical cyclone (TC) activity
Large map
Chance of above average tropical cyclone activity
| Region | Outlook summary (near, below or above average) |
Chance of above average |
Long-term average number of tropical cyclones* |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Pacific | Near average | 55% | 14 |
| Western | Below average | 39% | 7 |
| Eastern | Near average | 55% | 10 |
*The long-term average number of tropical cyclones may change slightly from one year to the next as a new season of data is added to the calculation. The average number of tropical cyclones for the western and eastern region add to more than the average for the South Pacific, as cyclones that develop in one region and cross the border are counted twice when averages are added.
This outlook is based upon the status of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the preceding July to September period. Whilst the Pacific Ocean has remained neutral during these months, ocean temperatures have been near El Niño thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index, the measure of the atmospheric component of ENSO, has been negative through this period. Climate models suggest there is still double the normal chance of El Niño occurring this summer (i.e. 50% chance). During an El Niño, tropical cyclone numbers in the Western Region of the South Pacific tend to be below average.
The model has a good level of accuracy predicting cyclone numbers in the western region, a very low level of accuracy for the eastern region and a low level of accuracy for the South Pacific region.
Past South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlooks
- 2014–15 Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific.
- 2013–14 Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific.
- 2012–13 Odds favor a near average tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific.
- 2011–12 Tropical cyclone activity in the South pacific region appears likely to be shifted westward.
- 2010–11 Tropical cyclone activity for the South Pacific is expected to be higher than average in the western region and lower than average in the eastern region.
