Climate Driver Update
Climate drivers in the Pacific, Indian and Southern oceans and the Tropics


Average of international model outlooks for NINO3.4

Average of international model outlooks for IOD


Sea surface temperature maps

Sea surface temperature maps are not available for forecasts before Spring 2018

Global sea surface temperature outlooks for the months and season ahead. Anomalies indicate the difference from normal.

Sea surface temperature maps (select map for larger view)

SST outlooks for the next 3 months

Pacific Ocean

ENSO is the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña states in the Pacific region. El Niños typically produce drier seasons, and La Niñas drive wetter years, but the influence of each event varies, particularly in conjunction with other climate influences.

NINO3.4 SST plumes from Bureau model forecasts, updated daily
Select to see full-size map of NINIO3.4 SST plumes from Bureau model forecasts, updated daily.

International climate model outlooks

Nino 3.4 2 month outlook
Graph details

The graphs are based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

These graphs show the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.

Weekly sea surface temperatures

Graphs of the table values

Monthly sea surface temperatures

Graphs of the table values

5-day sub-surface temperatures

Monthly temperatures

Southern Oscillation Index

30-day SOI values for the past two years
Select to see full-size map of 30-day Southern Oscillation Index values for the past two years, updated daily.

Trade winds

5-day SST and wind anomaly from TAO/TRITON
Select to see full-size map of 5-day SST and wind anomaly from TAO/TRITON.

Cloudiness near the Date Line

About El Niño and La Niña (ENSO)

El Niño Southern Oscillation

At a glance

ENSO is the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña conditions.

This climate influence is related to:   El Niño   La Niña   The Australian Monsoon

What is it?

The term El Niño refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which leads to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific. This occurs every three to eight years and is associated with a weaker Walker Circulation (see diagram below) and drier conditions in eastern Australia. El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the term used to describe the oscillation between the El Niño phase and the La Niña, or opposite, phase.

In the eastern Pacific, the northward flowing Humbolt current brings cooler water from the Southern Ocean to the tropics. Furthermore, along the equator, strong east to southeasterly Trade winds cause the ocean currents in the eastern Pacific to draw water from the deeper ocean towards the surface, helping to keep the surface cool. However in the far western Pacific there is no cool current, and weaker Trades mean that this "upwelling" effect is reduced. Hence waters in the western equatorial Pacific are able to warm more effectively under the influence of the tropical sun. This means that under "normal" conditions the western tropical Pacific is 8 to 10°C warmer than the eastern tropical Pacific. While the ocean surface north and northeast of Australia is typically 28 to 30°C or warmer, near South America the Pacific Ocean is close to 20°C. This warmer area of ocean is a source for convection and is associated with cloudiness and rainfall.

However, during El Niño years, the trade winds weaken and the central and eastern tropical Pacific warms up. This change in ocean temperature sees a shift in cloudiness and rainfall from the western to the central tropical Pacific Ocean.

Neutral ENSO phase

Trade winds push warm surface water to the west and help draw up deeper, cooler water in the east. The warmest waters in the equatorial Pacific build up to the north of Australia and that area become the focus for cloudiness and rainfall.

Map diagram of Neutral ENSO

La Niña

Trade winds strengthen, increasing the temperature of the warm water north of Australia. Cloudiness and rainfall north of Australia are enhanced, typically leading to above average winter–spring rainfall for eastern and central parts of the country, and a wetter start to the northern wet season.

Map diagram of Negative ENSO

El Niño

Trade winds weaken (or reverse) and warmer surface water builds up in the central Pacific. Cloudiness and rainfall north of Australia are supressed, typically leading to below average winter–spring rainfall for eastern parts of the country, and a drier start to the northern wet season.

Map diagram of Positive ENSO

The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. The following figure demonstrates the typical fluctuations in SOI over a period of 11 years. Positive SOI values are shown in blue, with negative in orange. Sustained positive values are indicative of La Niña conditions, and sustained negative values indicative of El Niño conditions.

 

graph of SOI

This graph shows the values of the SOI between 1991 and mid-2015. Monthly SOI data.

 

How does it affect Australia?

Each phase of the ENSO has a very different effect on the Australian climate. Events generally have an autumn to autumn pattern of evolution and decay. That is, they typically begin to develop during autumn, strengthen in winter/spring, then decay during summer and autumn of the following year. These effects are described in further detail on the following pages: El Niño and La Niña.

Further information and latest updates

The following links provide further information regarding the El Niño Southern Oscillation and its impact on the Australian Climate.

Timeline of monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values since 1876

Timeline graph of ENSO and SOI index

Sustained negative values (bottom/yellow) of the SOI below −7 may indicate El Niño, while sustained positive values above +7 may indicate La Niña. La Niña and El Niño events since 1900 are indicated on the graph.
Drag graph slider to see full history and y-axis scale.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) compares sea surface temperatures. An IOD negative state, having warmer than average sea surface temperatures near Australia, provides more moisture for frontal systems and lows crossing Australia.

IOD SST plumes from Bureau model forecasts, updated daily
Select to see full-size map of IOD SST plumes from Bureau model forecasts, updated daily.

International models

Latest IOD outlook
Graph details

The graphs are based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

Thse graphs show the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.

  1. 1960
  2. 1961
  3. 1963
  4. 1964
  5. 1972
  6. 1974
  7. 1981
  8. 1982
  9. 1983
  10. 1989
  11. 1992
  12. 1994
  13. 1996
  14. 1997
  15. 1998
  16. 2006
  17. 2010
  18. 2012
  19. 2014
  20. 2015
  21. 2016
Since 1960, when reliable records of the IOD began, to 2016 there have been 11 negative IOD and 10 positive IOD events.

About the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures impact rainfall and temperature patterns over Australia. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures can provide more moisture for frontal systems and lows crossing Australia.

Indian Ocean Dipole

Sustained changes in the difference between sea surface temperatures of the tropical western and eastern Indian Ocean are known as the Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD. The IOD is one of the key drivers of Australia's climate and can have a significant impact on agriculture. This is because events generally coincide with the winter crop growing season. The IOD has three phases: neutral, positive and negative. Events usually start around May or June, peak between August and October and then rapidly decay when the monsoon arrives in the southern hemisphere around the end of spring.


Neutral IOD phase

Water from the Pacific flows between the islands of Indonesia, keeping seas to Australia's northwest warm. Air rises above this area and falls over the western half of the Indian Ocean basin, blowing westerly winds along the equator.

Temperatures are close to normal across the tropical Indian Ocean, and hence the neutral IOD results in little change to Australia's climate.

Map diagram of Neutral IOD

Positive IOD phase

Westerly winds weaken along the equator allowing warm water to shift towards Africa. Changes in the winds also allow cool water to rise up from the deep ocean in the east. This sets up a temperature difference across the tropical Indian Ocean with cooler than normal water in the east and warmer than normal water in the west.

Generally this means there is less moisture than normal in the atmosphere to the northwest of Australia. This changes the path of weather systems coming from Australia's west, often resulting in less rainfall and higher than normal temperatures over parts of Australia during winter and spring.

Map diagram of Positive IOD

Negative IOD phase

Westerly winds intensify along the equator, allowing warmer waters to concentrate near Australia. This sets up a temperature difference across the tropical Indian Ocean, with warmer than normal water in the east and cooler than normal water in the west.

A negative IOD typically results in above-average winter–spring rainfall over parts of southern Australia as the warmer waters off northwest Australia provide more available moisture to weather systems crossing the country.

Map diagram of Negative IOD


Indian Ocean Dipole years

  1. 1960
  2. 1961
  3. 1963
  4. 1964
  5. 1972
  6. 1974
  7. 1981
  8. 1982
  9. 1983
  10. 1989
  11. 1992
  12. 1994
  13. 1996
  14. 1997
  15. 1998
  16. 2006
  17. 2010
  18. 2012
  19. 2014
  20. 2015
  21. 2016
Since 1960, when reliable records of the IOD began, to 2016 there have been 11 negative IOD and 10 positive IOD events.

The Southern Annular Mode, or SAM, refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position.


About the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) outlook

Southern Annular Mode

At a glance

The Southern Annular Mode can result in enhanced rainfall in regions of southern Australia.

This climate influence is related to:   ENSO   Frontal Systems

What is it?

The Southern Annular Mode, or SAM, also known as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), is a mode of variability which can affect rainfall in southern Australia. The SAM refers to the north/south movement of the strong westerly winds that dominate the middle to higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. The belt of strong westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere is also associated with the storm systems and cold fronts that move from west to east.

During the summer and autumn months (December through to May) the SAM is showing an increasing tendency to remain in a positive phase, with westerly winds contracted towards the south pole.

The contribution that the SAM makes to the climate variability in Australia and the apparent positive trend in the SAM are relatively recent discoveries and as such are still active areas of research.

SAM summer negative phase

Map diagram of Neutral sam

SAM summer positive phase

Map diagram SAM summer positive phase

SAM winter negative phase

Map diagram of SAM winter negative phase

SAM winter positive phase

Map diagram of SAM winter positive phase

Where, when and for how long does it occur?

 

Where, when and for how long does the Southern Annular Mode occur?

The diagram above shows the area affected by the Southern Annular Mode, when it occurs and how long it may last.

 

In terms of mean sea level pressure, the SAM affects the coastal regions of southern Australia throughout the year. Extreme negative phases of the SAM can cause increased rainfall and cold air outbreaks in southern Australia.

Each SAM event, both positive and negative, tends to last for around ten days to two weeks. The time frame between positive and negative events however is quite random, but is typically in the range of a week to a few months.

How does it affect Australia?

The impact that the SAM has on rainfall varies greatly depending on season and region. If Australia were a few degrees further south, then the impact of changes in SAM would be much more pronounced. The diagram below describes the average impact on rainfall during a "positive" (westerly winds further south) SAM event.

The SAM also has an impact on temperatures. In general, in areas where rainfall is increased, temperature is decreased whilst where rainfall is decreased, temperature is increased.

 

diagram showing the impact of the SAM

The diagram above shows the impact that a "positive" SAM event (decreased westerly winds) has on Australian rainfall. Shading indicates daily rainfall anomaly in mm/day for each of the seasons. (Source: Hendon et al. 2007)

 

An example

rainfall deciles thumbnail image

During July 2007, the SAM was in a strong negative phase. This was reflected in rainfall patterns across southern Australia.

Read more.

Further information and latest updates

 

Page updated: 12 June 2019

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales. It can be characterised as an eastward moving 'pulse' of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.

Weekly tropical climate note

MJO phase diagram

Archive:     

*Note: There are missing satellite observations from 16/3/1978 to 31/12/1978.

The MJO phase diagram illustrates the progression of the MJO through different phases, which generally coincide with locations along the equator around the globe. RMM1 and RMM2 are mathematical methods that combine cloud amount and winds at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere to provide a measure of the strength and location of the MJO. When the index is within the centre circle the MJO is considered weak, meaning it is difficult to discern using the RMM methods. Outside of this circle the index is stronger and will usually move in an anti-clockwise direction as the MJO moves from west to east. For convenience, we define 8 different MJO phases in this diagram.

Daily averaged OLR anomalies

OLR Archive:   

Westerly wind anomalies

Winds Archive:

Time-longitude plots of daily averaged OLR anomalies (left) and 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km above sea level) westerly wind anomalies (right) are useful for indicating the movement of the MJO.

How to read the Time-Longitude plots

The vertical axis represents time with the most distant past on the top and becoming more recent as you move down the chart. The Horizontal axis represents longitude.

Eastward movement of a strong MJO event would be seen as a diagonal line of violet (downward from left to right) in the OLR diagram, and a corresponding diagonal line of purple in the wind diagram. These diagonal lines would most likely fall between 60°E and 150°E and they would be repeated nearly every 1 to 2 months.

About the Madden-Julian Oscillian (MJO) outlook

Madden-Julian Oscillation

At a glance

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is associated with weekly to monthly periods of enhanced and suppressed rainfall over parts of Australia.

This climate influence is related to:   The Australian Monsoon   Tropical Cyclones   Tropical Depressions

What is it?

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a global-scale feature of the tropical atmosphere.

The MJO is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales. The MJO can be characterized as an eastward moving "pulse" of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days. However, the signal of the MJO in the tropical atmosphere is not always present.

MJO effects are most evident over the Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific. It influences the timing, development and strength of the major global monsoon patterns, including the Indian and Australian monsoons.

Tropical cyclones are also more likely to develop in association with certain phases of a strong MJO event.

The MJO is associated with variations in wind, cloudiness, and rainfall. Most tropical rainfall comes from tall thunderstorms which have very cold tops. Thunderstorms that have cold tops emit only low levels of longwave radiation. Therefore, the MJO can be monitored by using satellite measurements of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to identify areas of cloudiness (low OLR) within the tropics.

Where, when and for how long does it occur?

 

where, when and for how long does it occur?

The diagram above shows the area most affected by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the seasons during which the MJO's influence on Australia is greatest, and for how long each active phase of the MJO typically lasts.

 

How does it affect Australia?

The MJO has its greatest effect on the tropical areas of Australia during summer. It may have some effect on parts of southern Australia, however this impact appears small when compared to the effect on northern regions, and remains the subject of research.

The MJO can have an effect on the timing and intensity of "active" monsoon periods in northern Australia. This can lead to enhanced rainfall - in both the intensity of the rainfall and the duration of the rainfall.

An example

monthly rainfall deciles thumbnail image

During late January 2006, an active phase of the MJO coincided with an active monsoon period, resulting in enhanced rainfall over northern Australia.

Read more.

Further information and latest updates

The following links provide further information on the MJO.

  • The Weekly Tropical Climate Note provides information on the current phase of the MJO.
  • Technical information and maps relating to the Real-time Multivariate MJO Index, which is a way of monitoring the climate and weather variations caused by the MJO. Please note that this product is a research product, and as such is not always updated and may be under-going continual changes as it is developed.

 

Page updated: 30 October 2012

Monthly SSTs for May were slightly cooler than average across much of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with some areas warmer than average in the far west and near South America. Warm anomalies extended more broadly across much of the western half of the basin south of the equator, and around much of Australia.

The May values of the three key NINO indices were: NINO3 +0.0 °C, NINO3.4 −0.1 °C, and NINO4 +0.1 °C.

Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns across the tropical Pacific Ocean for the week ending 21 June remain largely unchanged compared to that of two weeks ago. Cooler than average SSTs have increased slightly in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while warmer than average SSTs in the far western Pacific have increased in area but weakened in intensity. Much of the central tropical Pacific SSTs are close to average for this time of the year.

SSTs remain slightly warmer than average around parts of Australia in the west, the east, and across the Tasman Sea, but cooler away from the coast in the Great Australian Bight.

The latest values of the three key NINO indices in the tropical Pacific for the week ending 21 June were: NINO3 −0.6 °C, NINO3.4 −0.2 °C and NINO4 +0.3 °C. NINO3.4 and NINO3 have cooled over the past fortnight while NINO4 has not changed.

Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values warmer than +0.8 °C are typical of El Niño, while persistent values cooler than −0.8 °C typically indicate La Niña.

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 21 June was −9.7. The 90-day value was −3.7. While the 30-day SOI has dropped over the past fortnight, mostly due to higher pressure at Darwin, the longer-term 90-day SOI is still well within the ENSO neutral range.

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

Trade winds for the 5 days ending 21 June were close to average across most of the tropical Pacific, consistent with neutral ENSO conditions.

During El Niño there is a sustained weakening, or even reversal, of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific. Conversely, during La Niña, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds.

Madden–Julian Oscillation currently weak in the Indian Ocean

A weak pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Indian Ocean. Forecasts of the MJO do not indicate typical movement of the MJO, meaning that other tropical waves are more likely to be influencing tropical weather. The MJO is not expected to be a significant influence on Australia's climate in the coming fortnight.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The latest weekly value to 21 June is +0.40 °C, with recent values being slightly positive. However, these positive values are expected to be only temporary with model outlooks indicating IOD index values are likely fall over the coming months.

Three of the six international climate models that the Bureau surveys reach or exceed negative IOD levels during the southern hemisphere winter or early spring, and remain so through spring. The other three models suggest neutral IOD is most likely.

The skill of IOD forecasts issued in autumn is low. As we progress further into winter skill in these model outlooks will increase further.

A negative IOD typically brings above average winter–spring rainfall to much of southern Australia.

Cloudiness near the Date Line has generally been below average since early to mid-March, with values in the past fortnight closer to normal. Overall, cloud patterns are consistent with neutral ENSO.

Equatorial cloudiness near the Date Line typically increases during El Niño (negative OLR anomalies) and decreases during La Niña (positive OLR anomalies).

The four-month sequence of equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 18 June) shows cooler than average waters extend in a band across the majority of the equatorial Pacific, between about 100 and 200 m in the western to central equatorial Pacific and rising to the top 50 m depth at the eastern edge of the equatorial Pacific.

In the western equatorial Pacific very weak warm anomalies persist, and have spread slightly in extent compared to May.

Since January, the pattern of cooler anomalies at depth has persisted, providing conditions favourable for potential La Niña development.

For the five days ending 21 June, sub-surface temperatures were cooler than average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific between 50 and 200 m depth. A large volume of water in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific sub-surface remains more than 2 degrees cooler than average, with parts of the top 100 m of the eastern sub-surface more than 3 degrees cooler than average. The volume of cooler than average water remains similar compared to two weeks ago.

Elsewhere in the sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, sub-surface temperatures were generally close to average.

Both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remain neutral. However, cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean has continued, and the majority of models anticipate this cooling will be close to the threshold for La Niña by early spring. Consequently, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has shifted to La Niña WATCH.

La Niña WATCH means the chance of La Niña forming in 2020 is around 50%—roughly double the average likelihood. Three models indicate a La Niña could form by late winter, with another two models suggesting thresholds could be approached during early spring. La Niña events typically bring above average spring rainfall in northern, central, and eastern Australia.

Key indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, are consistent with a neutral ENSO state. However, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled over the past two months, and are supported by temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which are also cooler than average.

Despite recent cooling in the eastern Indian Ocean, three of six models continue to suggest the possibility of a negative IOD developing during winter or early spring. Most models show a broad spread of likely scenarios between the neutral and negative IOD range. A negative IOD typically brings above average winter–spring rainfall to southern Australia.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive and is forecast to remain positive for the remainder of June and early July. During winter, a positive SAM typically means less rainfall for southwest Western Australia, southern Victoria, and Tasmania.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, and is not expected to influence Australia's climate in the coming fortnight.

 

We're expanding our service: On 23 June 2020 the ENSO Wrap–Up changed its name to the Climate Driver Update. The new name recognises that the ENSO Wrap–Up has long provided more than just ENSO information. We'll continue to provide fortnightly updates on the current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans, covering ENSO and the IOD, but will also include more about drivers from the Southern Ocean and tropics—the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO).

Positive SAM likely to continue for next two weeks

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive, and after a brief return to more neutral values, is forecast to remain positive for the coming two to three weeks.

During winter, a positive SAM typically means less rainfall for southwest Western Australia, southern Victoria, and Tasmania.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region will cool in the coming months. Three of the eight surveyed models reach the La Niña threshold during August, with another two models approaching thresholds in September and October. The other three models remain more clearly at neutral levels.

ENSO events—El Niño or La Niña—typically begin to develop during the southern hemisphere autumn to winter, before strengthening in winter to spring.

Product code: IDCKGEWW00