Tropical Climate Update

Out-of-season tropical low to Australia's northwest

A tropical low currently located west of Sumatra is forecast by some weather models to intensify and move towards waters off Australia's northwest. This system is being monitored by the Bureau, which has assessed this tropical low as having a low chance of developing to tropical cyclone intensity in the Australian Region in the coming week.

Tropical cyclone outlook for Australia's Western Region

Madden–Julian Oscillation active over Indian Ocean

After being indiscernible for more than a week, a pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has redeveloped over the Indian Ocean. Climate models are in good agreement that this pulse will track eastwards and approach the Maritime Continent, to Australia's northwest, later this week. Typically, at this time of the year, an MJO pulse near the Maritime Continent can contribute to above-average rainfall for much of Queensland and islands in the Maritime Continent region, such as Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. For other parts of northern Australia, an MJO pulse has little to no influence on rainfall at this time of the year.

Read more about the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Tropical cyclone activity starts in earnest in the northern hemisphere 

The first northern hemisphere tropical storm of 2020 made landfall on the Philippines in the past week. Vongfong rapidly intensified to typhoon strength as it approached the eastern Philippines and crossed the coast with reported sustained winds in excess of 150 km/h and peak wind gust speeds of 255 km/h (comparable to an Australian category 3 tropical cyclone). Ex-typhoon Vongfong has weakened to below tropical cyclone strength and is not expected to re-intensify.

Associated with the MJO over the Indian Ocean, a potentially very dangerous storm is currently located in the Bay of Bengal. Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan (equivalent to an Australian category 5 tropical cyclone), with sustained winds to 240 km/h, is predicted to track northwards and make landfall near the India/Bangladesh border, at the head of the Bay of Bengal, in the next 24-36 hours. While Amphan is predicted to weaken somewhat from its current intensity, it may still be at the equivalent intensity of an Australian Severe Tropical Cyclone (category 3 or higher) when it crosses the coast. Historically, this section of coastline has been associated with very dangerous storm surges and some of the world's most deadly tropical cyclone events.

Tropical cyclone warnings and information available at the Indian Meteorological Department

An active MJO, in combination with a tropical cyclone, can sometimes lead to monsoon onset. However, the latest information from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is that the current weather situation in the Bay of Bengal is unlikely to initiate the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in 2020. The IMD is predicting an onset date of 5 June, slightly later than the average onset date of 1 June. By convention, onset of the Indian monsoon occurs when monsoonal conditions are recorded at the city of Kerala, on the far southwest coast of India.