Northern Australian temperature outlook

Issued 22 January 2014

Temperature outlook shifts to near equal odds

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • The chances of warmer or cooler days/nights are roughly equal over most of northern Australia
  • Climate influences are close to their long-term average, including a neutral tropical Pacific
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of northern Australia, but lower over the central NT and Queensland's Southeast Coast
  • Minimum temperature accuracy is generally low to very low across northern Australia, with exception to the Top End, Cape York, and Queensland's Central Coast; see accuracy tab for more detail
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, larger view Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, larger view

Details

The chances of the February to April temperature (either maximum or minimum) exceeding the long-term median are near 50% over northern Australia (see map). So for every ten February to April outlooks with similar odds to these, about five of them would be expected to be warmer than average over these areas, while about five would be cooler.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.

Oceans surrounding Australia are also expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate over most of northern Australia (with exceptions listed below)
  • Low over central Australia and Queensland's Southeast Coast

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate over the Top End of the NT and small parts of northern Queensland, including the Central Coast
  • Low through the western NT and southern and eastern Queensland
  • Very low elsewhere