National temperature outlook

Issued 22 January 2014

No strong shift in temperature odds for most of Australia

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Warmer days are more likely over Tasmania, and the far southeast mainland
  • Warmer nights are more likely in Tasmania, eastern Victoria, and western and southern coastlines of WA
  • The chances of warmer or cooler days/nights are roughly equal over most of Australia
  • Climate influences are close to their long-term average, including a neutral tropical Pacific
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of Australia, except for parts of central Australia and northern WA, where the accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate over southern WA, and Tasmania, while elsewhere accuracy is generally low to very low; see accuracy tab for more detail.
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, large image Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, large image

Details

The February to April maximum temperature outlook shows chances of greater than 60% for warmer than normal days over Tasmania, east Gippsland in Victoria, and southeast NSW (see map). So for every ten February to April outlooks with similar odds to these, about six of them would be expected to be warmer than average over these areas, while about four years would be cooler.

The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal daytime temperatures for February to April is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) over most of the country.

The chances that the average minimum temperature for February to April will exceed the long-term median are greater than 60% over most of Tasmania, eastern Victoria, the Mid North Coast of NSW and the western and southern coastlines of WA.

The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal night-time temperatures for February to April is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) over most of the country.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.

Oceans surrounding Australia are also expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate over most of Australia (with exceptions listed below)
  • Low over northern WA, central Australia, western NSW and central Victoria

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate over southern WA, Tasmania, the northern Top End of the NT, and small parts of northern Queensland
  • Low through northern WA, the western NT, most of SA, southern and eastern Queensland, and northern NSW
  • Very low elsewhere