Climate model summary archive

Past climate model summaries

• October 2015 El Niño to peak towards end of 2015; rapid decay likely in first quarter of 2016
• September 2015 El Niño set to persist at strongest values since 1997-98
• August 2015 Models maintain El Niño into 2016
• July 2015 El Niño likely to strengthen and persist through 2015
• June 2015 El Niño likely to strengthen during spring.
• May 2015 Models indicate tropical Pacific to remain well above El Niño thresholds.
• April 2015 Models maintain outlooks for El Niño through winter and spring.
• March 2015 Model consensus indicates El Niño by winter 2015.
• February 2015 ENSO neutral, though tropical Pacific Ocean likely to remain warm.
• January 2015 Models suggesting neutral for now, but remaining warm.
• December 2014 Tropical Pacific Ocean likely to remain near El Niño thresholds over summer.
• November 2014 Models near El Niño thresholds.
• October 2014 Models ease outlooks for El Niño in summer.
• September 2014 El Niño remains on hold.
• August 2014 Models ease their El Niño outlook for spring.
• July 2014 Majority of models still favour spring El Niño.
• June 2014 El Niño remains likely for 2014.
• May 2014 El Niño remains likely for 2014.
• April 2014 Models suggest El Niño likely by mid-winter.
• March 2014 An increased chance of El Niño from winter.
• February 2014 Models indicate tropical Pacific to warm.
• January 2014 Models suggest tropical Pacific likely to warm over coming months.
• December 2013 Neutral ENSO through summer.
• November 2013 Neutral ENSO through summer.
• October 2013 Neutral ENSO for austral summer.
• September 2013 ENSO and IOD neutral.
• August 2013 ENSO neutral; negative IOD weakening.
• July 2013 ENSO remains neutral; negative IOD likely
• June 2013 Negative IOD, but ENSO remains neutral.
• May 2013 Neutral ENSO, possible negative IOD development.
• April 2013 Neutral ENSO conditions expected to persist.
• March 2013 ENSO neutral set to continue.
• February 2013 Models predict neutral conditions to continue.
• 19 September 2012 Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds.
• 5 September 2012 Borderline El Niño conditions continue.
• 22 August 2012 El Niño remains likely for 2012.
• 8 August 2012 Models predict weak El Niño in 2012.
• 25 July 2012 El Niño remains likely in 2012.
• 11 July 2012 Models suggest increased risk of El Niño in 2012.
• 27 June 2012 Models suggest further warming through winter.
• 13 June 2012 Models suggest further warming through winter.
• 30 May 2012 Neutral in tropical Pacific, but further warming likely.
• 16 May 2012 Warming in tropical Pacific set to continue.
• 2 May 2012 Neutral conditions, but warming in tropical Pacific continues.
• 18 April 2012 Continued warming in tropical Pacific Ocean.
• 4 April 2012 La Niña ends; conditions neutral.
• 26 October 2011 La Niña re-established in the Pacific.
• 27 April 2011 Models predict neutral conditions by southern hemisphere winter.
• 30 March 2011 Models predict continued weakening of La Niña conditions.
• 2 March 2011 Models predict continued weakening of La Niña conditions.
• 2 February 2011 Models predict La Niña will persist into the southern hemisphere autumn.
• 18 January 2011 Models predict La Niña event will persist through southern hemisphere summer.
• 8 November 2010 Models predict La Niña event will persist into first quarter of 2011.
• 27 October 2010 Models predict La Niña event will persist into at least early 2011.
• 13 October 2010 Models predict La Niña event likely to continue until at least early 2011.
• 29 September 2010 Models predict La Niña event to continue through 2010.
• 15 September 2010 Models predict La Niña conditions to continue: La Niña intensifies in the Pacific.
• 1 September 2010 Models predict conditions to remain above La Niña thresholds: La Niña strengthens in the Pacific.
• 18 August 2010 Models predict continued cooling in the tropical Pacific: La Niña conditions persist in the Pacific.
• 31 May 2010 Models predict neutral conditions to persist over coming months, with the possibility of cool conditions later in the year.
• April 2010 Models predict neutral conditions to persist over coming months, with the possibility of cool conditions later in the year.
• March 2010 Models predict neutral conditions to return to the Pacific by June 2010.
• November 2009 Models predict that El Niño conditions will persist through summer 2009/10.