Climate Model Summary

Climate Model Summary Archive: 18 August 2010

Models predict continued cooling in the tropical Pacific: La Niña conditions persist in the Pacific

Summary

As detailed in our ENSO Wrap-up, key Pacific Ocean and atmospheric indicators of ENSO remain at levels typical of a La Niña event.

Dynamical computer models surveyed by the Bureau suggest Niño3.4 sea surface temperatures will cool further, and are likely to remain at levels typical of a La Niña event until at least the end of the year.

The Bureau's model POAMA is predicting that ocean temperatures will remain at La Niña levels throughout the remainder of 2010. Almost all of individual model runs from POAMA are below La Niña thresholds for the forecast period.

Model Outlooks

The following table summarizes the opinion of National Climate Centre climatologists regarding the outputs from various forecast models. The model set contains eight reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.

See About ENSO outlooks for details on the models and a summary of the terms used.

MODEL /
GROUP
Forecast Start Date 1-3 MONTHS
(Aug 10 to Oct 10)
4-6 MONTHS
(Nov 10 to Jan 11)
POAMA
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
17 August Cool Cool
System 3
ECMWF (EU)
1 July Cool Cool
GloSea *
UK Met Office
1 August Cool Cool #
CFS
NCEP (US)
17 August Cool Cool
CGCMv1
NASA Goddard GMAO (US)
1 August Cool Cool
JMA-CGCM02
Japan Met. Agency
1 August Cool/Neutral Neutral/Cool
KMA-SNU
Korean Met. Administration
July Cool Neutral/Cool
BCC_CMA
BCC/CMA (China)
Unavailable Unavailable Unavailable

# Model forecast is run only until the end of December
* Note that this page requires a password, freely available from UK Met Office
Note that some links above may be updated to more recent forecasts than listed here.

POAMA Forecasts

The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast every day for the following eight months starting with the latest observations. The average of the most recent 30 model runs predicts cool conditions to prevail this winter and through spring and early summer 2010.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral phase, with the latest weekly value of the IOD index near zero. POAMA predicts that the IOD index will fall slightly during coming months, potentially reaching negative IOD levels in spring.

October 2010

For the 30 runs of POAMA between 17 July 2010 and 15 August 2010, the average NINO3.4 temperature anomaly for October 2010 is -1.02°C and the frequency distribution is as follows:
below −0.8°C: 86.7% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 13.3% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

January 2011

And similarly for January 2011 the average NINO3.4 index is -1.18°C and the frequency distribution is:
below −0.8°C: 100.0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 0.0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

Similar data for other months can be accessed by following the "POAMA" link in the table above.

Users should exercise caution when interpreting these forecasts and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the web links. Frequent updates of the latest observational data with relevant commentary are available on the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up page.

This survey last updated 17th August 2010.
Next update expected 1st September 2010.


See also the ENSO Wrap-up archive here.

Past climate model summaries