Climate Model Summary

Climate Model Summary Archive: 27 June 2012

Issued on Wednesday 27 June 2012 |

Models suggest further warming through winter

Summary

As detailed in the ENSO Wrap-Up, most climate indicators across the tropical Pacific remain at ENSO-neutral values, although several are now nearing El Niño thresholds.

All dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will continue to warm over the next six months. Six of the seven models surveyed are suggesting an increased risk of warm (i.e., El Niño) conditions developing during the latter half of the austral winter or possibly spring 2012. The remaining model is showing a borderline neutral-warm forecast for this period. However, results from individual models continue to show a moderate to high level of spread in their forecasts, meaning there remains a reasonable level of uncertainty in this outlook. Climatologists will continue to monitor conditions and outlooks closely for any further developments over the coming months.

El Niño events typically begin to develop in the autumn or winter months, strengthening in spring before a rapid decline in late summer and autumn.

Model Outlooks

The following table summarises the opinion of National Climate Centre (NCC) climatologists regarding the outputs from various long range forecast models. The model set contains seven reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.

See About ENSO outlooks for details on the models and a summary of the terms used.

MODEL /
GROUP
Forecast Start Date 1-3 MONTHS
(Jul 2012 to Sep 2012)
4-6 MONTHS
(Oct 2012 to Dec 2012)
POAMA
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
1 June Warm Warm
CFS
NCEP (US)
26 June Neutral/Warm Warm
GEOS-5
NASA Goddard GMAO (US)
1 June Neutral/Warm Warm
System 4
ECMWF (EU)
1 June Warm Warm
JMA/MRI-CGCM
Japan Met. Agency
1 June Warm Warm
GloSea
UK Met Office
1 June Warm Warm #
ARPEGE*
MeteoFrance
1 June Neutral Neutral/Warm

# Forecast period ends before December.
* This model has been introduced to our Model Summary as of 16 May 2012. A password is required to view these forecasts.

Note that some links above may be updated to more recent forecasts than listed here.

POAMA Forecasts

The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast on day 1 of each month for the following eight months. The most recent model run predicts NINO3.4 will continue to warm throughout the forecast period, with a transition to warm El Niño conditions in late winter.

The IOD index remains neutral with the most recent value of −0.1 for the week ending 24 June. Recent forecasts from the POAMA model predict a degree of spread around positive threshold values indicating the possibility of a weak positive IOD event during winter and spring.

August 2012

The most recent POAMA model run (1 June) predicts the average NINO3.4 temperature anomaly for August 2012 will be 1.1 °C and the frequency distribution is as follows:
below −0.8 °C: 0.0% (Cool)
−0.8 °C to +0.8 °C: 0.0% (Neutral)
above +0.8 °C: 100.0% (Warm)

November 2012

For November 2012, the average NINO3.4 temperature anomaly is 1.1 °C and the frequency distribution is:
below −0.8 °C: 0.0% (Cool)
−0.8 °C to +0.8 °C: 16.7% (Neutral)
above +0.8 °C: 83.3% (Warm)

Similar data for other months can be accessed by following the "POAMA" link in the table above.

Users should exercise caution when interpreting these forecasts and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the web links. Frequent updates of the latest observational data with relevant commentary are available on the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up page.

This survey last updated on the 27th of June 2012.
Next update expected 11th of July 2012.


See also the ENSO Wrap-up archive here.

Past climate model summaries