Climate Model Summary

Climate Model Summary Archive: 1 September 2010

Models predict conditions to remain above La Niña thresholds: La Niña strengthens in the Pacific


As detailed in our ENSO Wrap-up, a La Niña event is now well established in the Pacific Ocean with all key ENSO indicators at levels typical of a La Niña event.

Dynamical computer models surveyed by the Bureau suggest Niño3.4 sea surface temperatures will remain at levels typical of a La Niña event until at least the start of 2011.

The Bureau's POAMA model suggests that ocean temperatures will remain at La Niña levels through the remainder of 2010.

Model Outlooks

The following table summarizes the opinion of National Climate Centre climatologists regarding the outputs from various forecast models. The model set contains eight reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.

See About ENSO outlooks for details on the models and a summary of the terms used.

Forecast Start Date 1-3 MONTHS
(Sept 10 to Nov 10)
(Dec 10 to Feb 11)
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
30 August Cool Cool
System 3
1 August Cool Cool
GloSea *
UK Met Office
1 August Cool Cool #
31 August Cool Cool
NASA Goddard GMAO (US)
1 August Cool Cool
Japan Met. Agency
1 August Cool/Neutral Neutral/Cool
Korean Met. Administration
July Cool/Neutral Neutral/Cool
BCC/CMA (China)
Unavailable Unavailable Unavailable

# Model forecast is run only until the end of December
* Note that this page requires a password, freely available from UK Met Office
Note that some links above may be updated to more recent forecasts than listed here.

POAMA Forecasts

The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast every day for the following eight months starting with the latest observations. The average of the most recent 30 model runs predicts cool conditions to prevail in the southern hemisphere spring and at least into early 2011.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a negative phase, with the latest weekly value of the IOD index dropping to -0.9. POAMA predicts that the IOD index will remain at negative IOD levels throughout spring.

November 2010

For the 30 runs of POAMA between 1 August 2010 and 30 August 2010, the average NINO3.4 temperature anomaly for November 2010 is -1.28°C and the frequency distribution is as follows:
below −0.8°C: 100.0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 0.0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

February 2011

Similarly for February 2011 the average NINO3.4 index is -1.02°C and the frequency distribution is:
below −0.8°C: 86.7% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 13.3% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

Similar data for other months can be accessed by following the "POAMA" link in the table above.

Users should exercise caution when interpreting these forecasts and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the web links. Frequent updates of the latest observational data with relevant commentary are available on the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up page.

This survey last updated 1st September 2010.
Next update expected 15th September 2010.

POAMA archive data is currently not available. The most recent POAMA run is available here.

Past climate model summaries