Climate Model Summary

Climate Model Summary Archive: March 2013

ENSO neutral set to continue

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Oceanic indicators, cloud and wind patterns in the tropical Pacific and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remain at near normal values although the SOI has shown some recent fluctuations relating to monsoonal activity and high pressure systems in the central Pacific Ocean. For more details, please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.

All dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue throughout the autumn and winter months, although predictions through the April to June period are known to be less skilful. Four of the seven models suggest NINO3.4 will return to positive values by the end of winter, but still remain within the neutral range.

NINO3.4 Outlook

The NINO3.4 outlook is currently neutral. The most recent NINO3.4 is 0.1°C for the week ending 10 March 2013. The latest forecasts (started in March) from the surveyed international models predict the index will remain neutral throughout the southern autumn and winter months.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The IOD index is currently neutral with the most recent value of -0.2°C for the week ending 10 March 2013. The latest forecasts (March) from the surveyed international models predict the index will remain neutral during the southern autumn and winter months. The IOD has a limited influence on the Australian climate during summer and autumn.

Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)

POAMA, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates an eight-monthly forecast on the first day of each month. The most recent model run (started in March) predicts NINO3.4 is likely to remain neutral throughout autumn and winter. The following forecast values are for the ensemble mean.

POAMA archive data is available here.

ENSO Dials

The arrows on the dials below indicate the combined average ofmonthly NINO3.4 outlooks from a survey of international global climate models. Note that the individual model runs vary around the average.

ENSO dial month+1 ENSO dial month+3 ENSO dial month+5

NINO3.4 outlook bar-graphs

The following graphs shows the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.

NINO3.4 bar graph month+1 NINO3.4 bar graph month+3 NINO3.4 bar graph month+5

IOD outlook bar-graphs

The following graph shows the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.

IOD bar graph month+1 IOD bar graph month+3 IOD bar graph month+5

Past climate model summaries