Climate Model Summary Archive: 2 February 2011

Models predict La Niña will persist into the southern hemisphere autumn

Summary

As detailed in the ENSO Wrap-up, one of the strongest La Niña events on record continues to influence the Pacific Basin, however there are clear signs the event has passed its peak.

Although most dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate a gradual decay of the cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures during the coming months, they also show that sea surface temperatures (e.g. NINO3.4) are likely to remain at levels typical of a La Niña event into the southern hemisphere autumn season.

The majority of models, with the exception of NCEP, predict the central Pacific will warm over the coming months, with a return to neutral conditions by late autumn. The NCEP model suggests that NINO3.4 will continue to exceed La Niña thresholds through autumn into early winter. The JMA and NASA models predict a faster warming of central Pacific sea surface temperatures with neutral conditions being reached as early as March.

The Bureau's POAMA model suggests that central Pacific Ocean temperatures will start to warm in coming months, with all thirty POAMA forecasts favouring a gradual weakening of La Niña conditions. However, despite a gradual weakening, POAMA predicts that the central Pacific Ocean will remain at temperatures typical of a La Niña event into the southern hemisphere autumn season. A gradual weakening of the event through autumn would be consistent with previous La Niña episodes.

Model Outlooks

The following table summarises the opinion of National Climate Centre climatologists regarding the outputs from various long range forecast models. The model set contains eight reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.

See About ENSO outlooks for details on the models and a summary of the terms used.

MODEL / GROUP	Forecast Start Date	1-3 MONTHS (Feb 11 to Apr 11)	4-6 MONTHS (May 11 to Jul 11)
POAMA Australian Bureau of Meteorology	31 January	Cool/Neutral	Neutral
System 3 ECMWF (EU)	1 January	Cool/Neutral	Neutral
GloSea * UK Met Office	1 January	Cool	Cool/Neutral #
CFS NCEP (US)	30 January	Cool	Cool
CGCMv1 NASA Goddard GMAO (US)	1 January	Cool/Neutral	Neutral/Warm
JMA-CGCM02 Japan Met. Agency	1 January	Cool/Neutral	Neutral/Warm
KMA-SNU Korean Met. Administration	1 December	Cool	Cool/Neutral
BCC_CMA BCC/CMA (China)	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

# Model forecast is run only until the end of June
* Note that this page requires a password, freely available from UK Met Office
Note that some links above may be updated to more recent forecasts than listed here.

POAMA Forecasts

The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast every day for the following eight months starting with the latest observations. The average of the most recent 30 model runs predict La Niña conditions will gradually weaken over the coming months with a return to neutral conditions by late autumn.

The IOD is currently neutral with the latest weekly value of the IOD index at +0.05. POAMA predicts that the IOD index will remain neutral through the southern hemisphere summer and into autumn.

March 2011

For the 30 runs of POAMA between 2 January 2011 and 31 January 2011, the average NINO3.4 temperature anomaly for March 2011 is −0.98°C and the frequency distribution is as follows:
below −0.8°C: 80.0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 20.0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

June 2011

Similarly for June 2011 the average NINO3.4 index is −0.36°C and the frequency distribution is:
below −0.8°C: 10.0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 90.0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

Similar data for other months can be accessed by following the "POAMA" link in the table above.

Users should exercise caution when interpreting these forecasts and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the web links. Frequent updates of the latest observational data with relevant commentary are available on the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up page.

This survey last updated 2nd February 2011.
Next update expected 16th February 2011.

Past climate model summaries

October 2015 El Niño to peak towards end of 2015; rapid decay likely in first quarter of 2016
September 2015 El Niño set to persist at strongest values since 1997-98
August 2015 Models maintain El Niño into 2016
July 2015 El Niño likely to strengthen and persist through 2015
June 2015 El Niño likely to strengthen during spring.
May 2015 Models indicate tropical Pacific to remain well above El Niño thresholds.
April 2015 Models maintain outlooks for El Niño through winter and spring.
March 2015 Model consensus indicates El Niño by winter 2015.
February 2015 ENSO neutral, though tropical Pacific Ocean likely to remain warm.
January 2015 Models suggesting neutral for now, but remaining warm.
December 2014 Tropical Pacific Ocean likely to remain near El Niño thresholds over summer.
November 2014 Models near El Niño thresholds.
October 2014 Models ease outlooks for El Niño in summer.
September 2014 El Niño remains on hold.
August 2014 Models ease their El Niño outlook for spring.
July 2014 Majority of models still favour spring El Niño.
June 2014 El Niño remains likely for 2014.
May 2014 El Niño remains likely for 2014.
April 2014 Models suggest El Niño likely by mid-winter.
March 2014 An increased chance of El Niño from winter.
February 2014 Models indicate tropical Pacific to warm.
January 2014 Models suggest tropical Pacific likely to warm over coming months.
December 2013 Neutral ENSO through summer.
November 2013 Neutral ENSO through summer.
October 2013 Neutral ENSO for austral summer.
September 2013 ENSO and IOD neutral.
August 2013 ENSO neutral; negative IOD weakening.
July 2013 ENSO remains neutral; negative IOD likely
June 2013 Negative IOD, but ENSO remains neutral.
May 2013 Neutral ENSO, possible negative IOD development.
April 2013 Neutral ENSO conditions expected to persist.
March 2013 ENSO neutral set to continue.
February 2013 Models predict neutral conditions to continue.
19 September 2012 Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds.
5 September 2012 Borderline El Niño conditions continue.
22 August 2012 El Niño remains likely for 2012.
8 August 2012 Models predict weak El Niño in 2012.
25 July 2012 El Niño remains likely in 2012.
11 July 2012 Models suggest increased risk of El Niño in 2012.
27 June 2012 Models suggest further warming through winter.
13 June 2012 Models suggest further warming through winter.
30 May 2012 Neutral in tropical Pacific, but further warming likely.
16 May 2012 Warming in tropical Pacific set to continue.
2 May 2012 Neutral conditions, but warming in tropical Pacific continues.
18 April 2012 Continued warming in tropical Pacific Ocean.
4 April 2012 La Niña ends; conditions neutral.
26 October 2011 La Niña re-established in the Pacific.
27 April 2011 Models predict neutral conditions by southern hemisphere winter.
30 March 2011 Models predict continued weakening of La Niña conditions.
2 March 2011 Models predict continued weakening of La Niña conditions.
2 February 2011 Models predict La Niña will persist into the southern hemisphere autumn.
18 January 2011 Models predict La Niña event will persist through southern hemisphere summer.
8 November 2010 Models predict La Niña event will persist into first quarter of 2011.
27 October 2010 Models predict La Niña event will persist into at least early 2011.
13 October 2010 Models predict La Niña event likely to continue until at least early 2011.
29 September 2010 Models predict La Niña event to continue through 2010.
15 September 2010 Models predict La Niña conditions to continue: La Niña intensifies in the Pacific.
1 September 2010 Models predict conditions to remain above La Niña thresholds: La Niña strengthens in the Pacific.
18 August 2010 Models predict continued cooling in the tropical Pacific: La Niña conditions persist in the Pacific.
31 May 2010 Models predict neutral conditions to persist over coming months, with the possibility of cool conditions later in the year.
April 2010 Models predict neutral conditions to persist over coming months, with the possibility of cool conditions later in the year.
March 2010 Models predict neutral conditions to return to the Pacific by June 2010.
November 2009 Models predict that El Niño conditions will persist through summer 2009/10.