Climate Model Summary

Climate Model Summary Archive: February 2013

Models predict neutral conditions to continue

All indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remain at neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain close to average, with waters in the central and eastern regions continuing to cool following a warmer than average period in the second half of 2012. Cloud and wind patterns in the tropical Pacific and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) also remain near normal. Climatologists will continue to monitor atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Pacific closely for future developments and possible impacts on the Australian climate. See ENSO Wrap-Up

There is some variation in the NINO3.4 predictions by dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology as predictions through the April to June period are known to be less skilful. However, all models currently forecast neutral conditions to continue through the southern autumn and into winter.

NINO3.4 Outlook

The NINO3.4 outlook is currently neutral. The most recent NINO3.4 is -0.16°C for the week ending 17 February 2013. The latest forecast from the POAMA model (started in February) predicts the index will remain neutral into the southern winter.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The IOD index is currently neutral with the most recent value of -0.1°C for the week ending 10 February 2013. The latest forecast from the POAMA model (February) predicts the index will remain neutral into the southern winter, although the IOD has a limited influence on the Australian climate during summer and autumn.

Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)

POAMA, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates an eight-monthly forecast on the first day of each month. The most recent model run (started in February) predicts NINO3.4 is likely to remain on the cool side of neutral through autumn and into winter. The following forecast values are for the ensemble mean.

POAMA archive data is available here.

ENSO Dials

The arrows on the dials below indicate the combined average ofmonthly NINO3.4 outlooks from a survey of international global climate models. Note that the individual model runs vary around the average.

ENSO dial month+1 ENSO dial month+3 ENSO dial month+5

NINO3.4 outlook bar-graphs

The following graphs shows the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.

NINO3.4 bar graph month+1 NINO3.4 bar graph month+3 NINO3.4 bar graph month+5

IOD outlook bar-graphs

The following graph shows the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.

IOD bar graph month+1 IOD bar graph month+3 IOD bar graph month+5

Past climate model summaries