Climate Model Summary Archive: May 2013

Neutral ENSO, possible negative IOD development

The tropical Pacific remains in a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently within neutral values. All international models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue through the winter months and into spring.

Four of the five international models surveyed are suggesting the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in late winter. A negative IOD event during winter-spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southern Australia.

NINO3.4 Outlook

The NINO3.4 outlook indicates neutral ENSO conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) are likely to persist. The latest forecasts (initialised in May) from the surveyed international models predict the index will remain neutral throughout the austral winter and into spring. The most recent NINO3.4 value is +0.1°C for the week ending 12 May 2013.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The IOD index is currently neutral, with a value of 0.0°C for the week ending 12 May 2013. The IOD consensus outlook indicates that there is an increased chance of a negative IOD event developing by the end of the austral winter with four out of five models reaching the negative IOD thresholds by August.

Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)

POAMA, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates an eight-monthly forecast on the first day of each month. The most recent model run (started in May) predicts NINO3.4 is likely to remain neutral throughout the winter and spring months. The following forecast values are for the ensemble mean.

POAMA archive data is available here.

ENSO Dials

The arrows on the dials below indicate the combined average ofmonthly NINO3.4 outlooks from a survey of international global climate models. Note that the individual model runs vary around the average.

NINO3.4 outlook bar-graphs

The following graphs shows the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.

IOD outlook bar-graphs

The following graph shows the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.

Past climate model summaries

• October 2015 El Niño to peak towards end of 2015; rapid decay likely in first quarter of 2016
• September 2015 El Niño set to persist at strongest values since 1997-98
• August 2015 Models maintain El Niño into 2016
• July 2015 El Niño likely to strengthen and persist through 2015
• June 2015 El Niño likely to strengthen during spring.
• May 2015 Models indicate tropical Pacific to remain well above El Niño thresholds.
• April 2015 Models maintain outlooks for El Niño through winter and spring.
• March 2015 Model consensus indicates El Niño by winter 2015.
• February 2015 ENSO neutral, though tropical Pacific Ocean likely to remain warm.
• January 2015 Models suggesting neutral for now, but remaining warm.
• December 2014 Tropical Pacific Ocean likely to remain near El Niño thresholds over summer.
• November 2014 Models near El Niño thresholds.
• October 2014 Models ease outlooks for El Niño in summer.
• September 2014 El Niño remains on hold.
• August 2014 Models ease their El Niño outlook for spring.
• July 2014 Majority of models still favour spring El Niño.
• June 2014 El Niño remains likely for 2014.
• May 2014 El Niño remains likely for 2014.
• April 2014 Models suggest El Niño likely by mid-winter.
• March 2014 An increased chance of El Niño from winter.
• February 2014 Models indicate tropical Pacific to warm.
• January 2014 Models suggest tropical Pacific likely to warm over coming months.
• December 2013 Neutral ENSO through summer.
• November 2013 Neutral ENSO through summer.
• October 2013 Neutral ENSO for austral summer.
• September 2013 ENSO and IOD neutral.
• August 2013 ENSO neutral; negative IOD weakening.
• July 2013 ENSO remains neutral; negative IOD likely
• June 2013 Negative IOD, but ENSO remains neutral.
• May 2013 Neutral ENSO, possible negative IOD development.
• April 2013 Neutral ENSO conditions expected to persist.
• March 2013 ENSO neutral set to continue.
• February 2013 Models predict neutral conditions to continue.
• 19 September 2012 Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds.
• 5 September 2012 Borderline El Niño conditions continue.
• 22 August 2012 El Niño remains likely for 2012.
• 8 August 2012 Models predict weak El Niño in 2012.
• 25 July 2012 El Niño remains likely in 2012.
• 11 July 2012 Models suggest increased risk of El Niño in 2012.
• 27 June 2012 Models suggest further warming through winter.
• 13 June 2012 Models suggest further warming through winter.
• 30 May 2012 Neutral in tropical Pacific, but further warming likely.
• 16 May 2012 Warming in tropical Pacific set to continue.
• 2 May 2012 Neutral conditions, but warming in tropical Pacific continues.
• 18 April 2012 Continued warming in tropical Pacific Ocean.
• 4 April 2012 La Niña ends; conditions neutral.
• 26 October 2011 La Niña re-established in the Pacific.
• 27 April 2011 Models predict neutral conditions by southern hemisphere winter.
• 30 March 2011 Models predict continued weakening of La Niña conditions.
• 2 March 2011 Models predict continued weakening of La Niña conditions.
• 2 February 2011 Models predict La Niña will persist into the southern hemisphere autumn.
• 18 January 2011 Models predict La Niña event will persist through southern hemisphere summer.
• 8 November 2010 Models predict La Niña event will persist into first quarter of 2011.
• 27 October 2010 Models predict La Niña event will persist into at least early 2011.
• 13 October 2010 Models predict La Niña event likely to continue until at least early 2011.
• 29 September 2010 Models predict La Niña event to continue through 2010.
• 15 September 2010 Models predict La Niña conditions to continue: La Niña intensifies in the Pacific.
• 1 September 2010 Models predict conditions to remain above La Niña thresholds: La Niña strengthens in the Pacific.
• 18 August 2010 Models predict continued cooling in the tropical Pacific: La Niña conditions persist in the Pacific.
• 31 May 2010 Models predict neutral conditions to persist over coming months, with the possibility of cool conditions later in the year.
• April 2010 Models predict neutral conditions to persist over coming months, with the possibility of cool conditions later in the year.
• March 2010 Models predict neutral conditions to return to the Pacific by June 2010.
• November 2009 Models predict that El Niño conditions will persist through summer 2009/10.