Climate Model Summary

Climate Model Summary Archive: 31 May 2010

Models predict neutral conditions to persist over coming months, with the possibility of cool conditions later in the year

Summary

As detailed in our ENSO Wrap-up, neutral ENSO conditions have effectively returned to the Pacific Ocean.

Dynamical model predictions of Niño3.4 sea surface temperatures indicate that neutral conditions are likely to persist over the coming months. Six of the seven international models surveyed here, indicate that cooler than average temperatures are expected to return to the central Pacific by the middle of this austral winter. Five of those models raise the possibility of La Niña conditions by spring.

Typically, autumn is a transitional period for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Hence model predictions of ENSO through and beyond autumn are generally less reliable than at other times of the year.

Model Outlooks

The following table summarizes the opinion of National Climate Centre climatologists regarding the outputs from various forecast models. The model set contains eight reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.

See About ENSO outlooks for details on the models and a summary of the terms used.

MODEL /
GROUP
Forecast Start Date 1-4 MONTHS
(May 10 to Sep 10)
4-7 MONTHS
(Sep 10 to Nov 10)
POAMA
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
30 March - 28 April Neutral Neutral
System 3
ECMWF (EU)
01 April Neutral Cool
GloSea *
UK Met Office
01 April Cool/Neutral Cool
CFS
NCEP (US)
30 March - 28 April Cool Cool/Neutral
CGCMv1
NASA Goddard GMAO (US)
April Cool/Neutral Cool
JMA-CGCM02
Japan Met. Agency
March Cool/Neutral Cool #
KMA-SNU
Korean Met. Administration
March Warm/Neutral Neutral #
BCC_CMA
BCC/CMA (China)
Unavailable Unavailable Unavailable

# Model forecast is run only until the end of July
* Note that this page requires a password, freely available from UK Met Office
Note that some links above may be updated to more recent forecasts than listed here.

POAMA Forecasts

The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast every day for the following eight months starting with the latest observations. The average of the most recent 30 model runs predicts neutral conditions to persist this autumn and through winter 2010.

We survey two models here, the Bureau's POAMA and NASA GMAO for seasonal predictions of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Predictability and skill in the Indian Ocean is lower than for the Pacific.
Both models are currently producing a wide spread of results for the IOD in coming months, will neutral conditions being the average outlook.

July 2010

For the 30 runs of POAMA between 30 Mar 2010 and 28 Apri 2010, the average NINO3.4 temperature anomaly for JUN 2010 is -0.05°C and the frequency distribution is as follows:
below −0.8°C: 0.0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 100.0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

Oct 2010

And similarly for October 2010 the average NINO3.4 index is -0.24°C and the frequency distribution is:
below −0.8°C: 3.3% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 97.6% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

Similar data for other months can be accessed by following the "POAMA" link in the table above.

Users should exercise caution when interpreting these forecasts and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the web links. Frequent updates of the latest observational data with relevant commentary are available on the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up page.

This survey last updated 30th April 2010.
Next update expected late May 2010.


See also the ENSO Wrap-up archive here.

Past climate model summaries